April 20, 2026 - Caydee Blankenship, Senior Equity Research Analyst at CFRA Research explains why agentic commerce—where AI agents autonomously research and complete purchases for consumers—is poised to transform retail by reducing shopping time by up to 95%. McKinsey projects this market could reach $3-$5 trillion by 2030, representing 25%-40% of all e-commerce. The trend is already gaining momentum: AI-driven traffic to retail websites surged over 1,000% during the October 2024 to December 2025 holiday season, with conversion rates and revenue per visit significantly outperforming traditional traffic.
Investment Implications for Payment Processors
This shift creates clear winners and losers among payment processors. PayPal is most favorably positioned due to its AI platform partnerships with OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Perplexity, plus its robust fraud prevention infrastructure. Affirm also benefits from its transparent pricing model, which is well-suited for AI-handled large purchases. However, Western Union faces structural headwinds as agentic commerce bypasses traditional person-to-person transfer models in favor of digital payment platforms.