June 30, 2026 - Seven months into 2026, CFRA is grading its own Annual Forecast against the market — using the MSCI USA Equal-Weighted Index as the benchmark, through June 16.
The wins were decisive. Our AI infrastructure thesis drove Micron up roughly 356%, Marvell 233%, and AMD 136%. A well-timed Energy underweight (called April 2) avoided about 23 points of downside. Our copper call lifted Freeport-McMoRan 72% and First Quantum 54%. Datadog, upgraded into a pullback, returned up to 78%. Internationally, Taiwan Semiconductor gained 75% on the same AI thesis.
Not every call landed as expected. Meta's ad business grew as forecast, but the stock stayed flat — a risk we flagged in advance given elevated capex. Our apparel-over-off-price call worked on a basket basis, though Ross outperformed our original view.
Bottom line: secular themes like AI and copper held up; a single macro shock explains most of the shortfall.