March 2, 2026
The February 28 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran heighten the prospect of regime change and present three potential paths for energy markets. Limited damage to military targets would likely result in only a temporary oil price spike, while broader attacks on production or export infrastructure could sustain moderately higher prices and support U.S. producers and refiners. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, however, would likely trigger a sharp surge in oil prices and increase the risk of a global recession—driving near-term gains for energy companies but meaningful longer-term downside.
In his latest thematic report, CFRA Director of Research Stewart Glickman, CFA, outlines the factors unsettling oil markets and the key risks tied to each scenario.