Global U.S. Banks: Q3 2023 Earnings Preview

Global U.S. banks may see weaker third quarter earnings comps, with JPM exceeding earnings Y/Y, while BAC, C, GS, and MS are expected to be lower Y/Y. The Q/Q comps aren’t much better. Top-of-mind is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cycle moving from an expected rate hike to a rate pause regime and its effect on lenders and borrowers. The health of the consumer, how U.S. households manage a higher cost of living (energy, food, rent, and health care), and renewed student loan payments for some could become potential credit risks.