ETF & Mutual Fund, Fundamental, Research

Gold's Historic Rally: Why Portfolio Composition Matters

Aniket Ullal, SVP and Head of ETF Research & Analytics
Matthew Miller, CFA, SVP of Equity Research

Summary

Gold surged about 65% in 2025 but investors who owned broad Materials funds saw lower returns. The difference? Portfolio composition.

CFRA analysts highlight portfolio composition as the key driver of performance, with gold outperforming other materials amid rising geopolitical risk, currency concerns, and strong central bank demand.

Looking ahead, CFRA forecasts gold to average $5,000 per ounce in 2026, supported by continued safe-haven demand and policy uncertainty. Investors should monitor copper supply pressures, central bank purchasing activity, China’s property market, and trade policy shifts. With gold demand up sharply in 2025, driven by investment flows and record ETF inflow, precision in asset allocation is increasingly critical.

Download the full report to access CFRA's 2026 positioning recommendations.