Fundamental, Technical, Webinar

Holiday Hop or Drop?

Sam Stovall, CFP, Chief Investment Strategist
Vincent Randazzo, CMT, Head of Technical Research
October 5, 2023
11:00 am EDT – 8:00 am PDT – 4:00 pm BST

Looking ahead to the rest of 2023, this pre-election year has typically seen the S&P 500 gain an average of 3.4% in price after treading water during Q3 and rise in three out of every four years. Will investors enjoy such favorable Q4 seasonality to finish the year, or will the Fed remain hawkish which may hurt investor expectations? We think a potential absence of leadership from small-cap stocks could be a lump of coal in holiday stockings.

During this webinar, moderated by Ken Leon, Director of Equity Research, CFRA, Sam Stovall, CFRA’s Chief Investment Strategist, and Vincent Randazzo, Lowry’s Head of Technical Research, discussed the most likely outcome for the quarter ahead as well as “what’s in store for 2024.”

They also:
• Reviewed the historical performance of Q4 in pre-election years.
• Assessed a soft landing or the possibility of a recession being delayed and how this could affect investor confidence and market behavior in the fourth quarter.
• Examineed how the lack of leadership in small-cap stocks could affect the next quarter's overall market trends.
• Analyzed if the current market conditions match up with historical seasonality trends.
• Highlighted Lowry technical indicators and patterns that might influence Q4 market trends.


Ken Leon, CPA, Moderator
Director of Equity Research
Ken Leon is Director of Equity Research at CFRA. He is responsible for analytical research as well as client servicing. Ken’s research industries as an equity analyst are the U.S. global banks and alternative asset managers in the financial sector, multifamily residential REITs, and movies & entertainment in the communications services sector. Ken is a thought leader that provides ongoing in-depth research and communications to key customer segments. He is active with most media networks and leading print media and is widely sought for his investment views on the large banks and capital market trends. Ken previously held the position of Global Director of Research and Industry Analyst for S&P Global Market Intelligence. Prior to joining CFRA in 2003, Ken spent over two decades in equity research with research leadership responsibilities at ABN Amro, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers. He was a three-time Institutional Investor All-Star for his coverage of wireless telecommunications services, as one of the pioneers in this industry. Ken holds both a Bachelor of Science degree and an MBA from New York University. He was also licensed in the State of New Jersey as a Certified Public Accountant.
Sam Stovall, CFP
Chief Investment Strategist
Sam is Chief Investment Strategist. Sam Stovall is an analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA’s outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and The S&P Guide to Sector Investing. He also writes weekly “Sector Watch” and “Investment Policy” reports on CFRA’s MarketScope Advisor platform and maintains the Industry Momentum and Seasonal Rotation portfolios. His work is also found in CFRA’s flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
Vincent Randazzo, CMT
Head of Technical Research
Vincent Randazzo, CMT, is the Head of Technical Research at CFRA and Chief Market Strategist at Lowry Research, a CFRA business. Vincent produces written and recorded stock market research based on Lowry’s proprietary, statistically driven measures of equity market demand/supply and breadth. Prior to joining Lowry in 2016, Vincent held the positions with Nasdaq on its Market Intelligence Desk and as an Equity Research Salesperson at Morgan Stanley and UBS. He has written numerous articles for Bloomberg, Tabb Forum, Interactive Brokers, and Nasdaq. Vincent has held the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation since 2008.