Fundamental, Research

Private Equity Flywheel Slows in 2025 as Monetization Risks Mount

Kenneth Leon, Research Director, Industry and Equities

How Slower Private Equity Exits Are Impacting ALT Manager Strategy and AUM Growth

The private equity monetization machine—often referred to as the “flywheel”—is facing serious headwinds in 2025. In this thematic research report, CFRA dives into the evolving pressures disrupting the private equity cycle and what it means for leading alternative asset managers like Apollo (APO), Ares (ARES), Blackstone (BX), Carlyle (CG), Blue Owl (OWL), Brookfield (BAM), and KKR.

With the IPO and M&A exit windows narrowing and valuations compressed, private equity firms are increasingly relying on secondary buyouts to unlock liquidity. This shift marks a notable transition in how value is being realized and recycled. Despite dry powder remaining elevated, deal execution is getting tougher, and firms are being more selective in capital deployment.

CFRA’s report outlines why fundraising is expected to slow across private market vehicles while fee-related earnings take center stage. For institutional investors and analysts, understanding how firms are adapting to a slower monetization environment is key to identifying relative winners and laggards in the space.

We also explore implications of this monetization pressure on assets under management (AUM) growth, the emerging role of structured solutions, and the impact of elevated interest rates on leveraged buyouts.

Access the full report to explore actionable insights backed by CFRA’s proprietary research methodology—including charts, timelines, and firm-level commentary on how ALT managers are navigating the flywheel disruption.

What Is Included In This Report

  • The Shift in Private Equity Exit Strategy: Why trade sales and IPOs are drying up—and how secondaries are filling the gap.
  • Impact on Fundraising and Valuation: What the slowdown in monetization means for capital inflows, fees, and carry.
  • Who’s Best Positioned to Adapt: Forward-looking analysis on APO, ARES, BX, CG, OWL, BAM, and KKR in the new market dynamic.
  • Exclusive AUM & Exit Data: Get firm-level data, transaction charts, and strategic commentary on ALT manager resilience.

Download the full report to uncover CFRA’s forward-looking outlook on private equity monetization and firm-level implications for 2025 and beyond.