Fundamental, Research

Copper: High-Conviction Buy on Multiyear Deficit Cycle

Matthew Miller, CFA, Equity Research Analyst

Summary

June 5, 2026 - Copper's structural bull case has never been stronger. The convergence of energy transition, AI infrastructure buildout, and grid modernization is creating a demand surge for copper at precisely the moment when mine supply growth is stalling. In his latest research, CFRA Equity Analyst Matthew Miller, CFA raises his 2026 average copper price forecast to USD6.25/lb. — and projects escalating market deficits that could push prices to USD8.00–USD10.00/lb. by 2028–2030. From China's sulfuric acid export ban to a 17-year average timeline from mine discovery to production, the supply constraints are structural, not cyclical.

What makes this moment particularly compelling for investors is that copper miners are already outpacing the metal itself — with select names up 73% to 118% over the trailing 12 months. CFRA's proprietary global copper model forecasts demand growing at a 3.8% CAGR through 2030, well above consensus, while refined supply crawls at just 2.4% — a gap that inventory drawdowns alone cannot bridge.

Download the full report for CFRA's in-depth analysis of four high-conviction copper miners, including updated price targets, EBITDA valuations, and company-specific catalysts.